SIDC Latest Solar flare forecast

This web page forms part of the European Space Agency's network of space weather services and service development activities, and is supported under ESA contract number 4000134036/21/D/MRP.

For further product-related information or enquiries contact helpdesk. E-mail: helpdesk.swe@esa.int

All publications and presentations using data obtained from this site should acknowledge Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC) at the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) and The ESA Space Safety Programme.

For further information about space weather in the ESA Space Safety Programme see: www.esa.int/spaceweather

Access the ESA SWE portal here: swe.ssa.esa.int

The flare forecast data contained in the present page are Intellectual Property of the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB). Use of the data is restricted by the ROB data policy. We kindly acknowledge provision of the solar active region and sunspot classification data by NOAA and Catania Observatory.

API access to SIDC Solar Flare Forecast

Introduction

This product can also be used via a Web API (application programming interface) for programmatically accessing the files by requesting specific URL-encoded parameters. The list of mandatory and optional variables for this specific product are included in tables 1 and 2 below:

Table 1: Mandatory parameters for API access to SIDC Solar flare forecast.

Variable	Values required for this product
pc	S109
psc	b
component	latest | archive

Table 2: Optional parameters that can be set to refine the query.

Variable	Values
dts_start, dts_end	yyyy-MM-ddTHH:mm:ssZ

Access to the latest data

To access the latest data, the "component" parameter in the API URL should be set to "latest" (component=latest).
The URL is as follows: https://ssa.sidc.be/prod/API/index.php?component=latest&pc=S109&psc=b
returns the latest solar flare forecast in XML.

Access to the archived data

To access the archived data, the "component" parameter in the API URL should be set to "archive" (component=archive).
The URL is as follows: https://ssa.sidc.be/prod/API/index.php?component=archive&pc=S109&psc=b
returns the archived solar flare forecasts in XML.

In order to select a specific time range, the two parameters "dts_start" and "dts_end" need to be added, using the format yyyy-MM-ddTHH:mm:ssZ
For example, the URL: https://ssa.sidc.be/prod/API/index.php?component=archive&pc=S109&psc=b&dts_start=2020-11-27T00:00:00Z&dts_end=2020-11-30T23:59:59Z
returns an XML structure containing a list of all of the forecasts available from 27-30 November 2020.

The archive is queryable back to 24 April 2013.

Response and format

The XML output format is widely used and has been developed in a collaboration with CCMC (Community Coordinated Modelling Centre, NASA).

SIDC Solar Flare Forecast

Introduction

The probabilistic forecast for the occurrence of X-ray flares over the next 24h time span is provided for flare classes C, M and X separately (the observed bins are unbounded, meaning that an M flare is counted as an occurrence of a C flare as well.). A full disc as well as an active region specific forecast is provided where region identification schemes of both NOAA and Catania Observatory are being considered. The forecast is based on a combination of statistical techniques based on the active region properties and expert judgement on the evolution of active regions on the solar disk including regions rotating onto or off the disk.

Technical information

The results of these forecasts have historically been distributed within the daily URSIGRAM often only in encoded format, or in a derived categorical forecast. As a result an archive of regional probabilistic forecasts only starts 24 April 2013. Full disk probabilistic forecasts are only stored since March 26, 2015. The historic forecasts have been verified in a verification analysis published in Devos, Robbrecht and Verbeeck, "Verification of Space Weather Forecasting at the Regional Warning Center in Belgium", Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 4 (2014).

Limitations and caveats of the data

Between 00:00-12:30 UT the F10.7 cm flux values for current date are not given as the URSIGRAM has not yet been issued.

Use and functionality of the product

The Latest tab displays the most recent solar flare forecast updated after the day's URSIGRAM is issued (12:30 UT). The forecast is available in XML format via the API access.

The Query tab displays the archived solar flare forecasts of today and the previous three days by default. The list can be filtered by providing start and end dates in the format yyyy-MM-ddTHH:mm:ssZ. The archive begins 24 April 2013. The archived forecasts are also available in XML format via the API access.

The XML output format is widely used and has been developed in a collaboration with CCMC (Community Coordinated Modelling Centre, NASA).

The top menu navigation bar allows to browse through the products (across the different "Solar Weather" providers) as follows:

• Help: Provides more details on the data products, their properties, constraints and access methods, the providing Expert Group as well as this general help on navigation.
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