SIDC Latest Solar flare forecast

The forecaster on duty at the SIDC produces each day (nominal issuetime 12:30UT) a probabilistic forecast for the occurrence of X-ray flares over the next 24h time span. Probabilities are provided for flare classes C, M and X separately. A full disc as well as an active region specific forecast is provided where region identification schemes of both NOAA and Catania Observatory are being considered. The forecast is based on a combination of statistical techniques based on the active region properties and expert judgement on the evolution of active regions on the solar disc including regions rotating onto or off the disc.


Full disk

Issue dateC+M+X+
2021-01-220.140.010.01

Region

Issue date: 2021-01-22

NOAA no.NOAA locationCatania no.Catania locationC+M+X+
2798S16E34
@2021-01-22 00:30 UT
67S17E28
@2021-01-22 08:00 UT
0.100.010.01
2797S18E22
@2021-01-22 00:30 UT
66S17E19
@2021-01-22 08:00 UT
0.050.010.01
68N22W22
@2021-01-22 08:00 UT
0.010.010.01


This web page forms part of the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme's network of space weather service development activities, and is supported under ESA contract number 4000113186/15/D/MRP.

For further product-related information or enquiries contact helpdesk. E-mail: helpdesk.swe@ssa.esa.int

All publications and presentations using data obtained from this site should acknowledge Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC) at the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB) and The ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme.

For further information about space weather in the ESA Space Situational Awareness Programme see: www.esa.int/spaceweather

Access the SSA-SWE portal here: swe.ssa.esa.int

The flare forecast data contained in the present page are Intellectual Property of the Royal Observatory of Belgium (ROB). Use of the data is restricted by the ROB data policy. We kindly acknowledge provision of the solar active region and sunspot classification data by NOAA and Catania Observatory.

component = latest

Available at:

https://ssa.sidc.be/prod/API/index.php?component=latest&pc=S109&psc=b

component = archive

Available at:

https://ssa.sidc.be/prod/API/index.php?component=archive&pc=S109&psc=b

Optional parameters: dts_start, dts_end in format yyyy-MM-ddTHH:mm:ss

XML: output format is widely used and has been developed in a collaboration with CCMC (Community Coordinated Modelling Centre, NASA). Details of the format can be found here

SIDC flare forecast

The probabilistic forecast for the occurrence of X-ray flares over the next 24h time span is provided for flare classes C, M and X separately (the observed bins are unbounded, meaning that an M flare is counted as an occurrence of a C flare as well.). A full disk as well as an active region specific forecast is provided where region identification schemes of both NOAA and Catania Observatory are being considered. The forecast is based on a combination of statistical techniques based on the active region properties and expert judgement on the evolution of active regions on the solar disk including regions rotating onto or off the disk. The results of these forecasts have historically been distributed within the daily URSIGRAM often only in encoded format, or in a derived categorical forecast. As a result an archive of regional probabilistic forecasts only starts April 24, 2013. Full disk probabilistic forecasts are only stored since March 26, 2015. The historic forecasts have been verified in a verification analysis published in Devos, Robbrecht and Verbeeck, "Verification of Space Weather Forecasting at the Regional Warning Center in Belgium", Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, 4 (2014). The XML output format is widely used and has been developed in a collaboration with CCMC (Community Coordinated Modelling Centre, NASA). Details of the format can be found at http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/challenges/flare.php

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